Campaign-Promises.com

By: Mike Allen

October 27, 2008 10:10 AM EST Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) is returning to his promise of “a new politics” as he delivers what his campaign calls his “Closing Argument Speech On The Change We Need” in Canton, Ohio, at lunchtime on Monday.

‚ÄúIn one week, you can put an end to the politics that would divide a nation just to win an election; that tries to pit region against region, city against town, Republican against Democrat; that asks us to fear at a time when we need hope,” he says.

With a comfortable lead in state and national polls, Obama is kicking off the final full week of his grueling two-year campaign by shelving the slam and poke of the daily grind for a reminder of the reasons he initially captured the imagination of national Democrats as a promising young unknown.

“In one week, at this defining moment in history, you can give this country the change we need,” he says in prepared remarks. “[A]s I’ve said from the day we began this journey all those months ago, the change we need isn’t just about new programs and policies. It’s about a new politics – a politics that calls on our better angels instead of encouraging our worst instincts; one that reminds us of the obligations we have to ourselves and one another.”

Obama says that part of the reason that “the economic crisis occurred is because we have been living through an era of profound irresponsibility.”

“[W]hat we have lost in these last eight years cannot be measured by lost wages or bigger trade deficits alone,” he said “What has also been lost is the idea that in this American story, each of us has a role to play. Each of us has a responsibility to work hard and look after ourselves and our families, and each of us has a responsibility to our fellow citizens. That’s what’s been lost these last eight years – our sense of common purpose; of higher purpose. And that’s what we need to restore right now.”

Here are excerpts of the speech, released Monday morning by the campaign:

In one week, you can turn the page on policies that have put the greed and irresponsibility of Wall Street before the hard work and sacrifice of folks on Main Street.

In one week, you can choose policies that invest in our middle-class, create new jobs, and grow this economy from the bottom-up so that everyone has a chance to succeed; from the CEO to the secretary and the janitor; from the factory owner to the men and women who work on its floor.

In one week, you can put an end to the politics that would divide a nation just to win an election; that tries to pit region against region, city against town, Republican against Democrat; that asks us to fear at a time when we need hope.

In one week, at this defining moment in history, you can give this country the change we need.

….

At a moment like this, the last thing we can afford is four more years of the tired, old theory that says we should give more to billionaires and big corporations and hope that prosperity trickles down to everyone else. The last thing we can afford is four more years where no one in Washington is watching anyone on Wall Street because politicians and lobbyists killed common-sense regulations. Those are the theories that got us into this mess. They haven’t worked, and it’s time for change. That’s why I’m running for President of the United States.

Now, Senator McCain has served this country honorably. And he can point to a few moments over the past eight years where he has broken from George Bush – on torture, for example. He deserves credit for that. But when it comes to the economy – when it comes to the central issue of this election – the plain truth is that John McCain has stood with this President every step of the way. Voting for the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy that he once opposed. Voting for the Bush budgets that spent us into debt. Calling for less regulation twenty-one times just this year. Those are the facts.

And now, after twenty-one months and three debates, Senator McCain still has not been able to tell the American people a single major thing he’d do differently from George Bush when it comes to the economy. Senator McCain says that we can’t spend the next four years waiting for our luck to change, but you understand that the biggest gamble we can take is embracing the same old Bush-McCain policies that have failed us for the last eight years.

It’s not change when John McCain wants to give a $700,000 tax cut to the average Fortune 500 CEO. It’s not change when he wants to give $200 billion to the biggest corporations or $4 billion to the oil companies or $300 billion to the same Wall Street banks that got us into this mess. It’s not change when he comes up with a tax plan that doesn’t give a penny of relief to more than 100 million middle-class Americans. That’s not change.

…

The question in this election is not “Are you better off than you were four years ago?” We know the answer to that. The real question is, “Will this country be better off four years from now?”

…

Understand, if we want get through this crisis, we need to get beyond the old ideological debates and divides between left and right. We don’t need bigger government or smaller government. We need a better government – a more competent government – a government that upholds the values we hold in common as Americans.

…

So the choice in this election isn’t between tax cuts and no tax cuts. It’s about whether you believe we should only reward wealth, or whether we should also reward the work and workers who create it. I will give a tax break to 95% of Americans who work every day and get taxes taken out of their paychecks every week. I’ll eliminate income taxes for seniors making under $50,000 and give homeowners and working parents more of a break. And I’ll help pay for this by asking the folks who are making more than $250,000 a year to go back to the tax rate they were paying in the 1990s. No matter what Senator McCain may claim, here are the facts – if you make under $250,000, you will not see your taxes increase by a single dime – not your income taxes, not your payroll taxes, not your capital gains taxes. Nothing. Because the last thing we should do in this economy is raise taxes on the middle-class.

…

But as I’ve said from the day we began this journey all those months ago, the change we need isn’t just about new programs and policies. It’s about a new politics – a politics that calls on our better angels instead of encouraging our worst instincts; one that reminds us of the obligations we have to ourselves and one another.

Part of the reason this economic crisis occurred is because we have been living through an era of profound irresponsibility. On Wall Street, easy money and an ethic of “what’s good for me is good enough” blinded greedy executives to the danger in the decisions they were making. On Main Street, lenders tricked people into buying homes they couldn’t afford. Some folks knew they couldn’t afford those houses and bought them anyway. In Washington, politicians spent money they didn’t have and allowed lobbyists to set the agenda. They scored political points instead of solving our problems, and even after the greatest attack on American soil since Pearl Harbor, all we were asked to do by our President was to go out and shop.

That is why what we have lost in these last eight years cannot be measured by lost wages or bigger trade deficits alone. What has also been lost is the idea that in this American story, each of us has a role to play. Each of us has a responsibility to work hard and look after ourselves and our families, and each of us has a responsibility to our fellow citizens. That’s what’s been lost these last eight years – our sense of common purpose; of higher purpose. And that’s what we need to restore right now.

Popularity: 19% [?]

Barack Obama

Canton, Ohio

One week.

After decades of broken politics in Washington, eight years of failed policies from George Bush, and twenty-one months of a campaign that has taken us from the rocky coast of Maine to the sunshine of California, we are one week away from change in America.

In one week, you can turn the page on policies that have put the greed and irresponsibility of Wall Street before the hard work and sacrifice of folks on Main Street.

In one week, you can choose policies that invest in our middle-class, create new jobs, and grow this economy from the bottom-up so that everyone has a chance to succeed; from the CEO to the secretary and the janitor; from the factory owner to the men and women who work on its floor.

In one week, you can put an end to the politics that would divide a nation just to win an election; that tries to pit region against region, city against town, Republican against Democrat; that asks us to fear at a time when we need hope.

In one week, at this defining moment in history, you can give this country the change we need.

We began this journey in the depths of winter nearly two years ago, on the steps of the Old State Capitol in Springfield, Illinois. Back then, we didn’t have much money or many endorsements. We weren’t given much of a chance by the polls or the pundits, and we knew how steep our climb would be.

But I also knew this. I knew that the size of our challenges had outgrown the smallness of our politics. I believed that Democrats and Republicans and Americans of every political stripe were hungry for new ideas, new leadership, and a new kind of politics – one that favors common sense over ideology; one that focuses on those values and ideals we hold in common as Americans.

Most of all, I believed in your ability to make change happen. I knew that the American people were a decent, generous people who are willing to work hard and sacrifice for future generations. And I was convinced that when we come together, our voices are more powerful than the most entrenched lobbyists, or the most vicious political attacks, or the full force of a status quo in Washington that wants to keep things just the way they are.

Twenty-one months later, my faith in the American people has been vindicated. That’s how we’ve come so far and so close – because of you. That’s how we’ll change this country – with your help. And that’s why we can’t afford to slow down, sit back, or let up for one day, one minute, or one second in this last week. Not now. Not when so much is at stake.

We are in the middle of the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. 760,000 workers have lost their jobs this year. Businesses and families can’t get credit. Home values are falling. Pensions are disappearing. Wages are lower than they’ve been in a decade, at a time when the cost of health care and college have never been higher. It’s getting harder and harder to make the mortgage, or fill up your gas tank, or even keep the electricity on at the end of the month.

At a moment like this, the last thing we can afford is four more years of the tired, old theory that says we should give more to billionaires and big corporations and hope that prosperity trickles down to everyone else. The last thing we can afford is four more years where no one in Washington is watching anyone on Wall Street because politicians and lobbyists killed common-sense regulations. Those are the theories that got us into this mess. They haven’t worked, and it’s time for change. That’s why I’m running for President of the United States.

Now, Senator McCain has served this country honorably. And he can point to a few moments over the past eight years where he has broken from George Bush – on torture, for example. He deserves credit for that. But when it comes to the economy – when it comes to the central issue of this election – the plain truth is that John McCain has stood with this President every step of the way. Voting for the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy that he once opposed. Voting for the Bush budgets that spent us into debt. Calling for less regulation twenty-one times just this year. Those are the facts.

And now, after twenty-one months and three debates, Senator McCain still has not been able to tell the American people a single major thing he’d do differently from George Bush when it comes to the economy. Senator McCain says that we can’t spend the next four years waiting for our luck to change, but you understand that the biggest gamble we can take is embracing the same old Bush-McCain policies that have failed us for the last eight years.

It’s not change when John McCain wants to give a $700,000 tax cut to the average Fortune 500 CEO. It’s not change when he wants to give $200 billion to the biggest corporations or $4 billion to the oil companies or $300 billion to the same Wall Street banks that got us into this mess. It’s not change when he comes up with a tax plan that doesn’t give a penny of relief to more than 100 million middle-class Americans. That’s not change.

Look – we’ve tried it John McCain’s way. We’ve tried it George Bush’s way. Deep down, Senator McCain knows that, which is why his campaign said that “if we keep talking about the economy, we’re going to lose.” That’s why he’s spending these last weeks calling me every name in the book. Because that’s how you play the game in Washington. If you can’t beat your opponent’s ideas, you distort those ideas and maybe make some up. If you don’t have a record to run on, then you paint your opponent as someone people should run away from. You make a big election about small things.

Ohio, we are here to say “Not this time. Not this year. Not when so much is at stake.” Senator McCain might be worried about losing an election, but I’m worried about Americans who are losing their homes, and their jobs, and their life savings. I can take one more week of John McCain’s attacks, but this country can’t take four more years of the same old politics and the same failed policies. It’s time for something new.

The question in this election is not “Are you better off than you were four years ago?” We know the answer to that. The real question is, “Will this country be better off four years from now?”

I know these are difficult times for America. But I also know that we have faced difficult times before. The American story has never been about things coming easy – it’s been about rising to the moment when the moment was hard. It’s about seeing the highest mountaintop from the deepest of valleys. It’s about rejecting fear and division for unity of purpose. That’s how we’ve overcome war and depression. That’s how we’ve won great struggles for civil rights and women’s rights and worker’s rights. And that’s how we’ll emerge from this crisis stronger and more prosperous than we were before – as one nation; as one people.

Remember, we still have the most talented, most productive workers of any country on Earth. We’re still home to innovation and technology, colleges and universities that are the envy of the world. Some of the biggest ideas in history have come from our small businesses and our research facilities. So there’s no reason we can’t make this century another American century. We just need a new direction. We need a new politics.

Now, I don’t believe that government can or should try to solve all our problems. I know you don’t either. But I do believe that government should do that which we cannot do for ourselves – protect us from harm and provide a decent education for our children; invest in new roads and new science and technology. It should reward drive and innovation and growth in the free market, but it should also make sure businesses live up to their responsibility to create American jobs, and look out for American workers, and play by the rules of the road. It should ensure a shot at success not only for those with money and power and influence, but for every single American who’s willing to work. That’s how we create not just more millionaires, but more middle-class families. That’s how we make sure businesses have customers that can afford their products and services. That’s how we’ve always grown the American economy – from the bottom-up. John McCain calls this socialism. I call it opportunity, and there is nothing more American than that.

Understand, if we want get through this crisis, we need to get beyond the old ideological debates and divides between left and right. We don’t need bigger government or smaller government. We need a better government – a more competent government – a government that upholds the values we hold in common as Americans.

We don’t have to choose between allowing our financial system to collapse and spending billions of taxpayer dollars to bail out Wall Street banks. As President, I will ensure that the financial rescue plan helps stop foreclosures and protects your money instead of enriching CEOs. And I will put in place the common-sense regulations I’ve been calling for throughout this campaign so that Wall Street can never cause a crisis like this again. That’s the change we need.

The choice in this election isn’t between tax cuts and no tax cuts. It’s about whether you believe we should only reward wealth, or whether we should also reward the work and workers who create it. I will give a tax break to 95% of Americans who work every day and get taxes taken out of their paychecks every week. I’ll eliminate income taxes for seniors making under $50,000 and give homeowners and working parents more of a break. And I’ll help pay for this by asking the folks who are making more than $250,000 a year to go back to the tax rate they were paying in the 1990s. No matter what Senator McCain may claim, here are the facts – if you make under $250,000, you will not see your taxes increase by a single dime – not your income taxes, not your payroll taxes, not your capital gains taxes. Nothing. Because the last thing we should do in this economy is raise taxes on the middle-class.

When it comes to jobs, the choice in this election is not between putting up a wall around America or allowing every job to disappear overseas. The truth is, we won’t be able to bring back every job that we’ve lost, but that doesn’t mean we should follow John McCain’s plan to keep giving tax breaks to corporations that send American jobs overseas. I will end those breaks as President, and I will give American businesses a $3,000 tax credit for every job they create right here in the United States of America. I’ll eliminate capital gains taxes for small businesses and start-up companies that are the engine of job creation in this country. We’ll create two million new jobs by rebuilding our crumbling roads, and bridges, and schools, and by laying broadband lines to reach every corner of the country. And I will invest $15 billion a year in renewable sources of energy to create five million new energy jobs over the next decade – jobs that pay well and can’t be outsourced; jobs building solar panels and wind turbines and a new electricity grid; jobs building the fuel-efficient cars of tomorrow, not in Japan or South Korea but here in the United States of America; jobs that will help us eliminate the oil we import from the Middle East in ten years and help save the planet in the bargain. That’s how America can lead again.

When it comes to health care, we don’t have to choose between a government-run health care system and the unaffordable one we have now. If you already have health insurance, the only thing that will change under my plan is that we will lower premiums. If you don’t have health insurance, you’ll be able to get the same kind of health insurance that Members of Congress get for themselves. We’ll invest in preventative care and new technology to finally lower the cost of health care for families, businesses, and the entire economy. And as someone who watched his own mother spend the final months of her life arguing with insurance companies because they claimed her cancer was a pre-existing condition and didn’t want to pay for treatment, I will stop insurance companies from discriminating against those who are sick and need care most.

When it comes to giving every child a world-class education so they can compete in this global economy for the jobs of the 21st century, the choice is not between more money and more reform – because our schools need both. As President, I will invest in early childhood education, recruit an army of new teachers, pay them more, and give them more support. But I will also demand higher standards and more accountability from our teachers and our schools. And I will make a deal with every American who has the drive and the will but not the money to go to college: if you commit to serving your community or your country, we will make sure you can afford your tuition. You invest in America, America will invest in you, and together, we will move this country forward.

And when it comes to keeping this country safe, we don’t have to choose between retreating from the world and fighting a war without end in Iraq. It’s time to stop spending $10 billion a month in Iraq while the Iraqi government sits on a huge surplus. As President, I will end this war by asking the Iraqi government to step up, and finally finish the fight against bin Laden and the al Qaeda terrorists who attacked us on 9/11. I will never hesitate to defend this nation, but I will only send our troops into harm’s way with a clear mission and a sacred commitment to give them the equipment they need in battle and the care and benefits they deserve when they come home. I will build new partnerships to defeat the threats of the 21st century, and I will restore our moral standing, so that America is once again that last, best hope for all who are called to the cause of freedom, who long for lives of peace, and who yearn for a better future.

I won’t stand here and pretend that any of this will be easy – especially now. The cost of this economic crisis, and the cost of the war in Iraq, means that Washington will have to tighten its belt and put off spending on things we can afford to do without. On this, there is no other choice. As President, I will go through the federal budget, line-by-line, ending programs that we don’t need and making the ones we do need work better and cost less.

But as I’ve said from the day we began this journey all those months ago, the change we need isn’t just about new programs and policies. It’s about a new politics – a politics that calls on our better angels instead of encouraging our worst instincts; one that reminds us of the obligations we have to ourselves and one another.

Part of the reason this economic crisis occurred is because we have been living through an era of profound irresponsibility. On Wall Street, easy money and an ethic of “what’s good for me is good enough” blinded greedy executives to the danger in the decisions they were making. On Main Street, lenders tricked people into buying homes they couldn’t afford. Some folks knew they couldn’t afford those houses and bought them anyway. In Washington, politicians spent money they didn’t have and allowed lobbyists to set the agenda. They scored political points instead of solving our problems, and even after the greatest attack on American soil since Pearl Harbor, all we were asked to do by our President was to go out and shop.

That is why what we have lost in these last eight years cannot be measured by lost wages or bigger trade deficits alone. What has also been lost is the idea that in this American story, each of us has a role to play. Each of us has a responsibility to work hard and look after ourselves and our families, and each of us has a responsibility to our fellow citizens. That’s what’s been lost these last eight years – our sense of common purpose; of higher purpose. And that’s what we need to restore right now.

Yes, government must lead the way on energy independence, but each of us must do our part to make our homes and our businesses more efficient. Yes, we must provide more ladders to success for young men who fall into lives of crime and despair. But all of us must do our part as parents to turn off the television and read to our children and take responsibility for providing the love and guidance they need. Yes, we can argue and debate our positions passionately, but at this defining moment, all of us must summon the strength and grace to bridge our differences and unite in common effort – black, white, Latino, Asian, Native American; Democrat and Republican, young and old, rich and poor, gay and straight, disabled or not.

In this election, we cannot afford the same political games and tactics that are being used to pit us against one another and make us afraid of one another. The stakes are too high to divide us by class and region and background; by who we are or what we believe.

Because despite what our opponents may claim, there are no real or fake parts of this country. There is no city or town that is more pro-America than anywhere else – we are one nation, all of us proud, all of us patriots. There are patriots who supported this war in Iraq and patriots who opposed it; patriots who believe in Democratic policies and those who believe in Republican policies. The men and women who serve in our battlefields may be Democrats and Republicans and Independents, but they have fought together and bled together and some died together under the same proud flag. They have not served a Red America or a Blue America – they have served the United States of America.

It won’t be easy, Ohio. It won’t be quick. But you and I know that it is time to come together and change this country. Some of you may be cynical and fed up with politics. A lot of you may be disappointed and even angry with your leaders. You have every right to be. But despite all of this, I ask of you what has been asked of Americans throughout our history.

I ask you to believe – not just in my ability to bring about change, but in yours.

I know this change is possible. Because I have seen it over the last twenty-one months. Because in this campaign, I have had the privilege to witness what is best in America.

I’ve seen it in lines of voters that stretched around schools and churches; in the young people who cast their ballot for the first time, and those not so young folks who got involved again after a very long time. I’ve seen it in the workers who would rather cut back their hours than see their friends lose their jobs; in the neighbors who take a stranger in when the floodwaters rise; in the soldiers who re-enlist after losing a limb. I’ve seen it in the faces of the men and women I’ve met at countless rallies and town halls across the country, men and women who speak of their struggles but also of their hopes and dreams.

I still remember the email that a woman named Robyn sent me after I met her in Ft. Lauderdale. Sometime after our event, her son nearly went into cardiac arrest, and was diagnosed with a heart condition that could only be treated with a procedure that cost tens of thousands of dollars. Her insurance company refused to pay, and their family just didn’t have that kind of money.

In her email, Robyn wrote, “I ask only this of you – on the days where you feel so tired you can’t think of uttering another word to the people, think of us. When those who oppose you have you down, reach deep and fight back harder.”

Ohio, that’s what hope is – that thing inside us that insists, despite all evidence to the contrary, that something better is waiting around the bend; that insists there are better days ahead. If we’re willing to work for it. If we’re willing to shed our fears and our doubts. If we’re willing to reach deep down inside ourselves when we’re tired and come back fighting harder.

Hope! That’s what kept some of our parents and grandparents going when times were tough. What led them to say, “Maybe I can’t go to college, but if I save a little bit each week my child can; maybe I can’t have my own business but if I work really hard my child can open one of her own.” It’s what led immigrants from distant lands to come to these shores against great odds and carve a new life for their families in America; what led those who couldn’t vote to march and organize and stand for freedom; that led them to cry out, “It may look dark tonight, but if I hold on to hope, tomorrow will be brighter.”

That’s what this election is about. That is the choice we face right now.

Don’t believe for a second this election is over. Don’t think for a minute that power concedes. We have to work like our future depends on it in this last week, because it does.

In one week, we can choose an economy that rewards work and creates new jobs and fuels prosperity from the bottom-up.

In one week, we can choose to invest in health care for our families, and education for our kids, and renewable energy for our future.

In one week, we can choose hope over fear, unity over division, the promise of change over the power of the status quo.

In one week, we can come together as one nation, and one people, and once more choose our better history.

That’s what’s at stake. That’s what we’re fighting for. And if in this last week, you will knock on some doors for me, and make some calls for me, and talk to your neighbors, and convince your friends; if you will stand with me, and fight with me, and give me your vote, then I promise you this – we will not just win Ohio, we will not just win this election, but together, we will change this country and we will change the world. Thank you, God bless you, and may God bless America.

Popularity: 28% [?]

Barack Obama and Bill Clinton, often bitter rivals during the primary race between Obama and Hillary Clinton, will campaign together on Wednesday in Orlando, FOX News confirmed Saturday.

The event is expected to give Obama a boost in media attention during the last days of the campaign and offer another symbolic sign of the Democratic torch being passed to the next generation.

The only time the two have made a public appearance together was Sept. 11 of this year, when Obama visited former President Clinton at his Harlem office. Clinton pledged to do whatever Obama asked him.

“I predict that Senator Obama will win and win handily,” Clinton said at the time, as they posed for photos and took a couple of questions from reporters.

“There you go, you can take it from the president of the United States,” Obama replied. “He knows a little something about politics.”

During the bruising primaries, Clinton raised questions about Obama’s qualifications and drew stinging rebukes from many Democrats for comparing Obama’s victory in South Carolina to Jesse Jackson’s wins there in the 1980s, since Jackson ultimately lost the primary race.

Popularity: 20% [?]

What will an Obama administration and a Congress with increased Democratic majorities do? That’s a relevant question, given the Democrats’ leads in the polls. And it’s a little hard to answer, given the financial crisis that has been raging and the recession that seems to be ahead.

One thing they will certainly do is raise taxes on high earners. The Bush tax cuts are scheduled to expire in 2010, and congressional Democrats will gleefully allow the top rates to rise. Left-leaning Democrats, like Barack Obama himself, want to “spread the wealth around,” as the candidate told Joe the Plumber in October. Blue Dog Democrats want to reduce the budget deficit and will welcome the additional revenue that the Congressional Budget Office’s static-analysis models will promise. Raising taxes when the economy is weakening is not the medicine prescribed by Keynesian economics, and it is probably not what Obama’s economic advisers would prescribe if they were starting from scratch today. It is what Herbert Hoover and Congress did in the early 1930s, and it helped to produce the Great Depression. But it is baked into the pie.

So is a slide toward trade protectionism. The breakdown of the Doha Round and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s refusal to bring the Colombia Free Trade Agreement to a vote mean that both multilateral and bilateral trade liberalism channels are clogged. Obama may or may not try to renegotiate NAFTA, as both Canada and Mexico have center-right governments satisfied with current arrangements. But the trend will be toward less free trade.

The prospects are cloudier for two other issues on which Obama has made big promises. Much of the next Congress’s time and psychic energy will be taken up with refashioning financial regulation–a subject of considerable difficulty. And the looming recession will make it politically risky for Democrats to push big spending programs.

This means that Congress in the next two years may not pass Obama’s national health insurance plan. The weakening economy and the enraged reaction earlier this year to $4-a-gallon gasoline also make it less likely that Congress will pass carbon reduction legislation–certainly not a carbon tax and probably not a cap-and-trade system.

Regional impact. In any case, health insurance and carbon reduction will be heavily lobbied, despite all the denunciations of lobbyists issued by Obama (and John McCain). Any one-size-fits-all healthcare bill affects various regions differently, because we have many healthcare delivery and finance systems across the country. The same goes for carbon reduction legislation, as the economies of some regions depend more heavily on coal than do others; it may be hard to convince voters there that we have to impose burdens on them today to achieve promised benefits in 2050. These disparities cut across party lines and helped defeat the Clinton healthcare proposals in 1994. They will probably come into play again if far-ranging bills are pressed forward.

Two issues pushed by Democrats in this Congress have no budgetary costs. One is the “fairness doctrine,” which is intended to shut down talk radio, the one communications medium in which conservative voices are dominant. The other is the so-called card check bill, which requires employers to bargain with unions when their organizers secure signatures on cards from a majority of employees; secret-ballot unionization elections, required now, would be a thing of the past. The aim is to vastly increase union membership, pumping money into a Democratic pressure group.

What might happen in the unlikely event McCain is elected and faces a Democratic Congress? Presumably he would try to hold tax rates down, but to do so he might have to embrace the kind of bipartisan tax reform enacted in 1986, with low rates and fewer preferences. Democrats might be willing to bargain if they could get rid of the alternative minimum tax, which threatens their core constituencies. McCain’s plan to end the tax preference for employer-provided health insurance could be the basis of compromise with a similar plan advanced by Democratic Sen. Ron Wyden that has bipartisan support. McCain might also seek a bipartisan carbon reduction bill.

Much depends, whoever wins, on whether Democrats elect enough senators to overcome filibusters. Even more may ride on the course of the economy and the depth of the recession, which could scotch either candidate’s proposals.

By Michael Barone

Popularity: 13% [?]

Popularity: 16% [?]

By U.S. Budget Watch

September 2008

The candidate’s policies are broken into four categories: tax, health care, energy, and other spending/savings. To show the effect when programs are fully in place, estimates of budget effects are for 2013. Policies that would enlarge the deficit (or reduce the surplus) are shown as negative numbers, and those that would reduce the deficit (or increase the surplus) are shown as positive numbers.

Tax Policy

Extend Some of the 2001 and 2003 Tax Cuts: -$294 billion. Senator Obama supports renewing and making all of the major tax cuts enacted in 2001 and 2003 permanent for families making less than $250,000, which will otherwise expire at the end of 2010. The cuts include the four lowest marginal income tax rates, the expanded child tax credit, reduced marriage penalties, and various other provisions. In developing its proposals, the Obama campaign assumed for the purposes of its baseline that the rest of the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts would be renewed and then proposed reversing several of the cuts in order to pay for other proposals. This estimate is the cost of making all of the tax cuts permanent.

Increase Income Taxes on Higher Earners: +$48 billion. To pay for his health care plan, Senator Obama would allow the top two tax brackets of the individual income tax — currently 33% and 35% — to return to their pre-2001 levels of 36% and 39.6%, respectively. He also would allow Pease and PEP rules to be reinstated for those making over $250,000 a year, which would phase out certain tax benefits for these earners.

Raise Capital Gains and Dividends Taxes on Higher Earners: +$28 billion. Senator Obama would maintain the current capital gains rates and dividends rate of 0 and 15% on capital gains for families making $250,000 or less and create a new higher 20% bracket for those making more than $250,000.

Reinstate a Smaller Estate Tax: +$44 billion. Under current law, the estate tax will disappear completely in 2010 and reemerge in 2011 for all estates worth over $1 million with a top rate of 55%. Senator Obama would instead freeze the estate tax at its 2009 levels. This would create a permanent estate tax with a top rate of 45% and a $3.5 million exemption ($7 million per family).

Patch the Alternative Minimum Tax: -$106 billion. Senator Obama has not specified a plan to address the Alternative Minimum Tax, although he has supported efforts to fix the AMT in a “fiscally responsible manner” in the past. We assume that he would support continuing the current policy of providing annual patches to prevent middle class taxpayers from having to pay this tax.

Make the Research and Experimentation Tax Credit Permanent: -$10 billion. The Research and Experimentation Tax Credit (commonly referred to as the R&E or R&D credit), which provided a 20% tax credit for qualified research expenses, expired on December 31, 2007. Senator Obama would renew the credit and make it permanent.

Create a Universal Refundable Mortgage Credit: -$13 billion. Senator Obama would create a universal mortgage credit equal to 10% of interest payments for homeowners who do not itemize and therefore can’t take advantage of the current mortgage interest tax deduction. We assume the credit would be capped at $800 a year.

Create a “Making Work Pay” Tax Credit: -$72 billion. Senator Obama supports providing workers with a refundable tax credit equal to their share of the Social Security payroll tax (6.2% of payroll) on their first $8,100 of earnings. The credit would offer a maximum benefit of $500 per worker ($1,000 per family), would be indexed for inflation, and would be phased out for singles starting at $75,000 and for married couples starting at $150,000.

Eliminate Income Taxes for Many Seniors: -$7 billion. Senator Obama would exempt senior citizens making less than $50,000 from paying income taxes. The policy would be phased out above $50,000.

Expand the Earned Income Tax Credit: -$5 billion. Senator Obama supports increasing the number of individuals eligible for the EITC, as well as increasing the size of EITC benefits. He would change the rules so more working parents could receive the credit, increase benefits for parents who fulfill their child support obligations, increase benefits for families with three or more children, and reduce the EITC marriage penalty by increasing the phase-out threshold for joint filers.

Modify the Saver’s Credit and Implement Auto-Saving: -$21 billion. Senator Obama would make the Saver’s Credit refundable and increase it to cover 50% of qualified savings up to $500 for individuals ($1,000 for families making less than $75,000). The credit would be automatically deposited in an individual’s savings account. Senator Obama would also require that employers automatically enroll workers in company pension plans or IRAs, although employees could choose not to participate.

Create a New College Tax Credit: -$13 billion. Senator Obama would create a new “American Opportunity Tax Credit” and would integrate the HOPE and Lifetime Learning Credits so that individuals could not claim both credits simultaneously. The new credit would be refundable and offer a maximum benefit of $4,000. The American Opportunity Tax Credit would be contingent upon students completing 100 hours of community service.

Expand the Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit: -$3 billion. Senator Obama would make the CDCTC refundable and increase it to cover up to 50% of the first $3,000 of child or dependent care expenses ($6,000 for multiple children) rather than up to 35% as under current law. According to the Tax Policy Center, he would also double the threshold for qualifying for the maximum credit from $15,000 a year to $30,000 a year.

Tax Carried Interest as Earned Income: +$2 billion. Senator Obama would tax the income earned by partners for performing investment management services at normal income tax rates, instead of the current practice of taxing them at the long-term capital gains rate (typically 15%).

Close Tax Loopholes and Shelters: +$75 billion. Senator Obama would seek to reduce tax shelter abuses, close the tax gap between taxes owed and taxes paid, and eliminate many corporate loopholes and tax breaks for certain industries or special interests. In particular, he would eliminate tax breaks for gas and oil companies; close the so-called CEO pay loophole that allows companies to avoid taxation on stock options offered to highly paid executives; require better capital gains reporting; and go after income being sheltered overseas by putting pressure on tax haven countries and companies involved in tax sheltering, while altering certain multinational tax deductions. Additionally, the campaign has said that an Obama administration would look for other sources of new revenue.

Cut Corporate Taxes: -$13 billion. Senator Obama would use some of the revenue raised from closing corporate tax loopholes and increasing the capital gains rate to cut corporate taxes. Specifically, Senator Obama would eliminate capital gains taxation on investment in small and start-up firms. Additionally, he would lower corporate income tax rates for businesses that start or expand operations within the United States.

Increase the Future Payroll Tax on High Earners: 0. To bring additional revenue into the Social Security system, Senator Obama supports creating a new tax on workers earning more than $250,000 a year. This tax would take effect in 2018 or later with a rate of between 2% and 4% of payroll (split between employer and employee). It would supplement the current 12.4% Social Security payroll tax that is levied on the first $102,000 in wages.

Total Budget Effect of Tax Policies in 2013: -$360 billion.

Health Care Policy

Expand Health Care Coverage: -$65 billion (net of savings). Senator Obama’s health care plan would require large employers to offer insurance or to pay a tax and would separately mandate that all children be insured. Individuals would have the option of keeping their employer coverage, purchasing insurance from a national health insurance exchange, or opting into a public plan similar to Medicare. Medicaid and SCHIP would be expanded while individuals who did not qualify for these programs would receive an income-related federal subsidy to purchase insurance. Additionally, small businesses would receive tax credits to provide health insurance to their employees.

Reduce Overall Health Care Costs: $0 (savings included in costs). Senator Obama has proposed a number of measures to slow the growth of health care costs, including health care information technology, research on the comparative effectiveness of treatments, more transparency within the health care system, and the use of more coordinated care and disease management. He also supports a performance-based payment system, reforming medical malpractice insurance, and reforming Medicare including by eliminating subsidies to private Medicare Advantage plans. By expanding health insurance coverage, the campaign says they will be able to cut disproportionate share hospital (DSH) payments which currently go to hospitals that treat large numbers of uninsured individuals. All savings are included in the estimate of the coverage program.

Close the “Doughnut Hole” in Medicare Part D: -$43 billion. Under the standard Medicare prescription drug program, the government covers 75% of the cost of prescription drugs up to $2,510, does not cover any costs until total prescription drug spending reaches $5,726, and then covers 95% of costs. Senator Obama would close this coverage gap as part of a spending-neutral reform of Medicare (see below). If they were unable to raise the necessary savings, the Obama campaign has said they would only partially close the doughnut hole to ensure spending-neutrality.

Reduce Medicare Costs: +$43 billion. To finance the closing of the doughnut hole, Senator Obama would legalize the reimportation of certain prescription drugs and allow the federal government to negotiate Medicare Part D drug prices directly with pharmaceutical companies. He would also ban drug companies from paying generic producers to refrain from entering drug markets, while increasing the use of generics in public programs. The campaign has said they would undertake additional measures as necessary to fully pay for any expansions to Medicare Part D.

Total Budget Effect of Health Care Policies in 2013: -$65 billion.

Energy Policy

Implement a Cap-and-Trade System: +$100 billion. Senator Obama supports the creation of a cap-and-trade system to limit greenhouse gas emissions. All companies that emit greenhouse gases would be required to obtain permits auctioned by the government. According to the Congressional Budget Office, the permits could be worth between $50 billion and $300 billion annually by 2020. We assume $100 billion in revenues. Under the Obama plan, all revenues would be spent on energy-related initiatives or on rebates to individuals.

Provide Tax Rebates and Transition Assistance: -$85 billion. The majority of revenue raised under Senator Obama’s cap-and-trade system would be used for tax rebates and other transition relief initiatives designed to assuage the impact of higher energy prices on individual communities and consumers.

Invest in Green Technology: -$15 billion. Senator Obama would invest $150 billion over 10 years in the development and commercialization of clean energy technology. This money would be used on programs to double clean energy research, extend the production tax credit for five years and create a clean tech venture capital fund that would pair with existing investment funds to encourage the creation and development of clean energy solutions and bolster financial support for environmental innovation.

Total Budget Effect of Energy Policies in 2013: $0.

Other Spending/Savings

Increase Pre-K – 12 Education Spending: -$18 billion. Senator Obama supports a number of policy proposals related to education. They include investing $10 billion per year in developmental programs for children under the age of five, reforming No Child Left Behind, helping future teachers finance their education, and offering financial incentives to teachers who spend time mentoring students.

Create Infrastructure Reinvestment Bank: -$6 billion. Senator Obama has called for the creation of a national infrastructure reinvestment bank that would invest $60 billion over 10 years in highways, technology, and other infrastructure projects. Funds would go primarily to projects related to homeland security, improving the environment, and economic growth.

Increase Spending on Basic Research: -$15 billion. Senator Obama has proposed to increase funding for basic research in physical and life sciences, mathematics, and engineering at a rate that would double basic research budgets over the next decade. He would also invest $50 billion over five years in information technology.

Expand Support for Higher Education: -$9 billion. Senator Obama supports creating a Community College Partnership Program, increasing funds for college readiness programs and expanding Pell Grants. Senator Obama would increase the maximum size of the Pell Grant for low-income students by ensuring the grant keeps pace with inflation.

Reduce Erroneous Payments and Use Purchasing Cards: +$6 billion. Senator Obama would reduce the number of improper payments made by the federal government in programs such as Medicare, Medicaid, Earned Income Tax Credit, and Social Security. He would also expand the use of purchasing cards to standardize government purchasing while increasing the government’s negotiating power.

Reform Government Spending: +$17 billion. In order to finance his education plan, Senator Obama would reduce the practice of earmarking, which allows members of Congress to direct funds to a specific (and often local) project during the legislative process. Additionally, he would reform federal contracting procedures, reduce federal energy consumption, and would auction off surplus federal property.

Eliminate the Federal Education Loan Program: +$3 billion. Senator Obama would eliminate current subsidies and guarantees to private banks and lenders who offer student loans and increase funding to the current direct loan program. The savings would be used to fund his college tax credit.

Double Foreign Aid: -$25 billion. To reach the Millennium Development Goal of cutting extreme worldwide poverty in half by 2015, Senator Obama has proposed doubling the current U.S. foreign aid budget from $25 billion a year to $50 billion a year.

Increase the Size of the Military: -$20 billion. Senator Obama has proposed increasing the size of the Army and Marine Corps. More specifically, he has declared his support for the current policy of adding 65,000 soldiers and 27,000 Marines. He would also strengthen the National Guard and Military Reserves, build up special operations forces capacity, and invest in military infrastructure.

Initiate a Phased Withdraw from Iraq: +$55 billion. Senator Obama has said that he would begin bringing troops home immediately with the ultimate goal of having all combat troops out of Iraq within 16 months of his taking office. He has also said that he would keep some noncombatant troops in and near Iraq to protect U.S. embassies and diplomats, while carrying out targeted strikes on al-Qaeda. We assume that Obama would reduce the number of troops in Iraq and Afghanistan to 30,000 by 2010.

Implement Unspecified Cuts to Slow Spending: +$50 billion. The campaign has said an Obama administration would reduce wasteful spending and eliminate obsolete programs in all areas of the budget, while directing agencies to identify wasteful and inefficient programs for a total of $50 billion in savings. Although the campaign has not announced many specifics, it has stated that Obama would achieve the savings by identifying redundant and lower-priority programs and slowing their growth.

Total Budget Effect of Other Spending/Savings Policies in 2013: +$ 38 billion.

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